The political landscape of South Asia is witnessing a significant shift as Bangladesh’s interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, strengthens ties with Pakistan, a country that was once its greatest adversary. Since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, Yunus has engaged in multiple meetings with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif while notably sidelining India. The interim government of Bangladesh dropped or scaled down the content on Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founder of Bangladesh and dropping the photograph of Indira Gandhi with Mujib from the school text books while retaining India’s role in Bangladesh freedom movement clearly indicates strategic shifts in the diplomatic choice of Bangladesh. This also reflects upon the emerging dynamics within the Indian Sub-continent.
Bangladesh-Pakistan Rapprochement
One of the most striking developments in this newfound alliance is the approval granted to Fly Jinnah, a low-cost Pakistani airline, to operate direct flights between Karachi, Dhaka, and Lahore. Bangladesh’s High Commissioner to Pakistan, Iqbal Mohammad Hussain, confirmed that operations will commence soon. Additionally, cargo flights between the two nations are being planned to bolster trade and economic cooperation.
Beyond economic engagement, Bangladesh and Pakistan are fostering cultural relations, a move that has sparked anger in India, given the history of the 1971 Liberation War.
India’s Historical Contribution to Bangladesh’s Independence
India played a crucial role in Bangladesh’s liberation, sacrificing over 3,000 soldiers while another 12,000 were wounded. The war ended with the surrender of 93,000 Pakistani soldiers. While India upheld its commitment to the Geneva Convention by repatriating these prisoners of war, Pakistan never reciprocated fully, leaving behind 54 Indian soldiers who were reportedly tortured and left to perish in Pakistani custody. The agony of their families, who spent decades seeking answers, is detailed in 1971: A War Story (available on Amazon).
This growing Bangladesh-Pakistan alliance raises critical questions: Has Bangladesh forgotten India’s sacrifices and the atrocities committed by the Pakistani military? The Pakistan Army massacred nearly three million Bengalis and subjected 200,000 women and girls to sexual violence. Until recently, the Awami League under Sheikh Hasina maintained close ties with India, recognising its role in Bangladesh’s economic growth.
Economic Dependence on India
India has been instrumental in Bangladesh’s economic rise, providing crucial raw materials such as cotton, yarn, and refined petroleum. Trade between the two nations reached $13.8 billion in 2022, growing at an annual rate of 14%. India is a key supplier of engineering goods, chemicals, medicines, and rice. During the COVID-19 pandemic, India supplied vaccines to Bangladesh when Western nations ignored its plight. Additionally, trade agreements allow both countries to use each other’s waterways, roads, and rail networks for commerce.
However, since India granted asylum to Sheikh Hasina after her ouster, relations between the two neighbours have deteriorated. Anti-India sentiments have been rising in Bangladesh, and reports indicate increased attacks on Hindus, who constitute 8% of the population. Yunus’ government has done little to curb this violence, despite India’s strong condemnations. Even former U.S. President Donald Trump has urged Bangladesh to protect its minorities.
Historical Betrayal Repeating?
The foundation of Bangladesh’s independence was laid when the Awami League, under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, won the 1970 elections in East Pakistan. Instead of honouring the electoral mandate, the Pakistani government imposed martial law, arrested Mujib, and launched Operation Searchlight, leading to a genocide of Bengali civilians. India’s intervention in 1971, at great cost, led to Bangladesh’s independence.
Yet, history seems to be repeating itself. Under Yunus, Mujib’s birth and death anniversaries, which were national events for over five decades, were abruptly cancelled. Bangladesh has also placed orders for Pakistani ammunition and military hardware, signaling a deeper strategic alliance.
Internal Turmoil and Economic Uncertainty
Sheikh Hasina’s removal was largely influenced by a student-led movement against Bangladesh’s quota system, which reserved over 50% of jobs for women, minorities, and the underprivileged. A key point of contention was the quota for children and grandchildren of freedom fighters who fought for Bangladesh’s independence. Although Hasina scrapped the quota in 2018 following mass protests, the Supreme Court reinstated it in 2023, reigniting tensions. The protests continued even after her removal, and violence against Hindus has escalated under Yunus’ watch.
Bangladesh is also facing economic distress. The country recently requested an additional $750 million loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on top of an existing aid package. However, the IMF has set stringent reform conditions before disbursing funds.
India’s Strategic Response
Given these developments, India must reconsider its approach towards Bangladesh. Instead of diverting critical raw materials to a potentially hostile neighbour, India could redirect resources to its domestic industries, boosting local employment. Additionally, India must strengthen ties with other regional allies to counterbalance Bangladesh’s pivot towards Pakistan.
As history unfolds, one crucial question remains: Will Bangladesh’s growing closeness to Pakistan lead to a betrayal of its founding principles? If history is any indication, India must not remain a passive observer this time.